Week 5: In a World Without Elite Teams, Toughness Wins
Hellooooooooo my friends in College Hoops,
That was certainly an eventful week in the college basketball world. I know I’ve talked about how the sport might actually have a year of high parity with UCONN regressing slightly, but now I’m VERY confident that’s what we’re going to see. I could be wrong, 1 or 2 teams could figure things out and pull away, but it seems like no one team is elite on both ends - I’m withholding some judgment on Tennessee because I’m still waiting for them to play a Top 10 quality team. It seems like there are about 11-12 teams that are all very good, and all of them could beat each other on a given night. Which makes sense, as the last 20 National Champions have been ranked in the Top 12 in the Week 6 AP Poll, meaning our options are: Tennessee, Auburn, Iowa State, Duke, Kentucky, Marquette, Alabama, Gonzaga, Florida, Kansas, Purdue, and Oregon. Maybe I’m just being stupid and describing college basketball as it exists in most years, but for some reason it feels more wide open than it has for some time. It usually doesn’t feel like any of 12 teams could win it, but this year it does. Here’s one analytical thing that kind of backs up this thinking - typically, when picking a National Champion, people look for teams who are Top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency per KenPom. As of right now, only Tennessee and Iowa State meet those criteria…and although the polls will say it this week, I feel pretty good saying I don’t think those teams are heads-and-shoulders above all the others. BUT, as I think through what’s going to separate the winners from the losers through the rest of the season, I think of one word: TOUGHNESS. I think that’s the theme that’s going to define the rest of this season. What do Tennessee and Iowa State have in common? They’re always tough, defensive-minded teams. Why have people liked Auburn so much this season? Because they play like grown men, and they make big plays late in games. Duke is probably the most talented team in the country this season, but they’ve lost some games because they weren’t as tough as their opponents in big moments. Kansas played tough against Duke, but looked WAY less tough than their opponents in the last two games. Toughness isn’t just defense and rebounds either - it’s also about having ice in your veins and making big plays to meet the moment. It’s about being able to go get a bucket when your back is against the wall. I’m going to be watching for teams that are aggressive and can impose their will more effectively - we’ll see if anyone stands out this week. But before we preview what’s ahead, let’s review the last week of college hoops:
TOP 10 THINGS FROM LAST WEEK:
1. Rocky (on) Top! We’ve got a new clubhouse leader at the top of the poll this week: Tennessee. Voters in both polls had the Volunteers at #1, with Auburn holding steady at #2 after losing at Cameron Indoor (reasonable, not an easy game to win), and Iowa State moving up to #3 after taking care of Marquette at home. That’s as unusual of a Top 3 as I can remember, folks…
2. SEC absolutely SMOKES the ACC, wins inter-conference challenge 14-2 (Home Teams were 10-6). This is the kind of result that gives some validity to what we already thought about each conference: the SEC is very clearly the best conference in college basketball right now, and the ACC is pretty clearly the worst of the Top 5 conferences at the moment. The most interesting individual results to me are definitely the ACC’s two wins - Duke beating Auburn and Clemson beating Kentucky - as well as Alabama’s big win in Chapel Hill and Mississippi State crushing a Pitt team that was potentially good. You can’t draw absolute conclusions from these results, but what the scoreboard tells me is that 1) despite the ACC being weak overall, Duke really can hang with any team in the country and 2) for now, Clemson should be considered the 2nd best team in the ACC.
Georgia 69 vs. Notre Dame 48
South Carolina 73 @ Boston College 51
Arkansas 76 @ Miami 73
Missouri 98 vs. California 93
Tennessee 96 vs. Syracuse 70
Texas A&M 57 vs. Wake Forest 44
Ole Miss 86 @ Louisville 63
Oklahoma 76 vs. Georgia Tech 61
LSU 85 vs. Florida State 75
Clemson 70 vs. Kentucky 66
Florida 87 vs. UVA 69
Alabama 94 @ North Carolina 79
Mississippi State 90 vs. Pittsburgh 57
Vanderbilt 80 @ Virginia Tech 64
Texas 63 @ NC State 59
Duke 84 vs. Auburn 78
3. Big 12 wins Challenge vs. Big East, 6-5…and home teams were 10-1. No wonder it felt like no one could win a road game last week. I was actually pretty interested in the outcomes of more than half of these games - basically any of the ones that didn’t involve objectively not-good teams. Providence cruising past BYU with Bryce Hopkins back was interesting (though it might say more about BYU because PC lost to Rhode Island the next game), Cincinnati losing to Villanova in its first real test was telling, Creighton showed signs of life beating KU at home (although Pop Isaacs is now out for the year with a hip injury), Iowa State beating Creighton was huge for their resume, UCONN bouncing back vs. Baylor was a must-win to salvage some good from their non-con schedule (and it was good to see Mahaney can still hoop a bit), TCU beating Xavier means the Musketeers might be dead (RIP), and Houston finally played like a top team and put Butler in their place. I know the Big 12 technically won, but the results are almost more of a victory for the Big East - 4 of the Top 5 teams won, and it would have been a stunning result if Marquette won in Ames.
Providence 83 vs. BYU 64
Villanova 68 vs. Cincinnati 60
Creighton 76 vs. Kansas 63
Iowa State 81 vs. Marquette 70
UCONN 76 vs. Baylor 72
Texas Tech 76 vs. DePaul 62
TCU 76 vs. Xavier 72
West Virginia 73 vs. Georgetown 60
Houston 79 vs. Butler 51
St. John’s 88 vs. Kansas State 71
Oklahoma State 85 @ Seton Hall 76
4. Reminder: winning road games is very hard to do. By my count, ranked teams were only 9-10 on the road against lower-ranked / unranked teams this past week. And that includes Kentucky’s win, which was technically a neutral site game in Seattle (several hours from Spokane). Keep this in mind when you’re making your picks going forward…
5. It Was a Very Good Week for Duke. The Blue Devils beat #2 Auburn at home to pick up their first notable win of the season, then rallied in the second half to beat Louisville on the road. The win over Auburn was very impressive - not just because of the caliber of their opponent, but because Auburn gave them a pretty good shot (45% FG, 10 threes on 40% shooting). Also noteworthy was that Duke had 33 bench points, including 18 from Isaiah Evans, who has only averaged 11.8 mins per game and haven’t even played in every contest this season. And the guy hit 6 of 8 shots from three point range! If Duke can get him going, they’re only going to improve as the season goes on. Scheyer’s team finished strong in the Louisville game, as well - they fought back after giving up a 14 point first half lead, then outscored the Cardinals 43-28 in the second half.
6. Other Winners of the Week: Alabama beat North Carolina on the road, Iowa State defeated #5 Marquette at home, UCLA extended their win streak to 7 with a huge buzzer-beater win at Oregon to hand the Ducks their first loss, Penn State just crushed Purdue at home by forcing 24 turnovers, Creighton followed their court-storming with a big win over UNLV to win their 3rd straight, UCONN won not just one but TWO entire basketball games against decent teams (Baylor and Texas), Clemson delivered Kentucky its first loss then beat Miami on the road, Michigan won two huge games - at Wisconsin, then home against a frisky Iowa team (3 straight vs. Top 75 teams), Texas A&M beat Wake Forest on Tuesday then extended their win streak to 4 with a huge win over Texas Tech, and Missouri - who didn’t win a single conference game last season - convincingly beat their rival Kansas at home after losing 9 of their 10 previous matchups and are now 8-1 with NCAA Tournament aspirations.
7. It Was a Very Bad Week for Kansas. The formerly #1 Jayhawks got court-stormed twice this week, the first time in a loss at Creighton on Tuesday, and the second in the recently-mentioned loss at rival Missouri on Saturday. It would appear that Bill Self hasn’t completely solved all of the team’s problems from last season. For starters, the offense still kind of stinks. Greg McDermott and Creighton executed their game plan to perfection: double up on Hunter on defense and force Harris to shoot jumpers, and force fouls on Hunter on the offensive end. As a result, Hunt tallied a season low 6 pts, Harris shot 6/21, and the Jayhawks as a team shot under 36% from the field. Meanwhile, Pop Isaacs popped off for 27 pts on 6/9 shooting from deep before his hip popped out of place…in all seriousness, he needs season-ending surgery, which is a real bummer for him and Creighton. Kalkbrenner and Ashworth both added 17 pts and played excellently as well. Things didn’t improve against Missouri - Kansas gave up 22 turnovers, I believe 14 of which were in the first half. They made a valiant comeback attempt in the second half, but ultimately it wasn’t enough to erase the lead Mizzou had built. It was a rough week for the transfers - Mayo shot pretty poorly, Storr was still inconsistent: okay vs. Creighton but horrible against Mizzou, and Rylan Griffen was out with the flu for the first game and didn’t contribute much in the second. As a result, Self played Hunter and KJ and DaJuan way too much - and that combo just isn’t good in some matchups vs. capable teams. An optimist might say Kansas had a rough week on the road and just need to regroup and get Griffen back to 100% health (analytically, he’s vitally important to them). Pessimists (also: the KU fanbase) are understandably concerned that this is the same team as last year, Self won’t give the new guys enough slack to get comfortable…and that although this Kansas team has lots of talent, it’s lesser than the sum of its parts because it’s still missing dynamic, aggressive guards and wings who can create when threes aren’t falling.
8. Other Losers of the Week: Cincinnati was a Top 10 team in KenPom then made Villanova look good (which is a feat these days), Wisconsin watched its fun surprise season come to a screeching halt with consecutive losses to Michigan and Marquette, Memphis somehow lost to Arkansas State…20 turnovers and giving up 12 threes explains it I suppose, Pitt lost to Mississippi State by 33 on Wednesday then almost lost to Virginia Tech (who is widely believed to be the worst high major team in the country), North Carolina failed to avenge their Sweet 16 loss to Alabama and instead lost to them by 15 at home (note: RJ Davis shot 1/11 from 3 that day and is now 35% from the field and 24% from 3 on the year…he’s turning into Caleb Love), Louisville is down to 8 healthy scholarship players and lost at home twice this week - to Ole Miss by 23 then to Duke by 11 - to extend their losing streak to 3 games.
9. Kentucky erased a 16 point halftime deficit to beat Gonzaga 90-89 in OT in their own backyard! This game lived up to the billing - it was fantastic. Gonzaga got everything it wanted offensively in the first half, without much resistance from Kentucky. They missed 21/27 threes and still shot close to 50% from the field. But Gonzaga’s offense hit a rare slump early in the second half, while Kentucky’s offense kicked in for an 18-6 run to cut the lead to 4 with lots of time left. Kentucky nearly won in regulation, but Koby Brea missed a mid-range shot with seconds left. But momentum kept swinging their way - Stromer, Nembhard, and Hickman had to hit some clutch threes late to give themselves a potential shot to win the game, but Stromer couldn’t hold onto the ball after rebounding a missed Andrew Carr free throw, and Kentucky pulled off the comeback. Graham Ike had 28 pts & 11 rebounds, Khalif Battle had 13 pts, Ryan Nembhard had 13 pts & 10 assists, and Ben Gregg had 14 pts & 7 boards off the bench. But Kentucky is just so deep and can beat you in so many different ways. Andrew Carr had 19 pts & 7 rebounds, Jaxson Robinson had 18 pts, and the Wildcats had 3 others in double figures as well - Otega Oweh, Amari Williams, and Brandon Garrison. I’m still very high on Kentucky, they’re one of my favorite teams to watch based on how much fun the offense normally is. To say something nice about Gonzaga, at least Khalif Battle had a sick dunk.
10. Remaining Undefeated Teams: Tennessee, Florida, Oklahoma, Utah State, UC Irvine, Drake, Loyola Chicago, and Rhode Island
Other Games & Off The Court Happenings::
Iowa beat Northwestern 80-79 at home on a game-winning buzzer beater 3 by Josh Dix!
Northwestern bounced back with a win over Illinois 70-66 in OT in Evanston! Nick Martinelli had 27 pts and Brooks Barnhizer added 17. Illinois only had 19 points not scored by their freshmen…
Ohio State got back to winning with a commanding victory over Rutgers, powered by Bruce Thornton and Devin Royal scoring 22 pts each
Michigan State thrashed Minnesota 90-72 and Nebraska 89-52. They’ve scored 89+ pts in 3 straight games
Michigan narrowly beats Iowa 85-83 on a late bucket from Roddy Gayle Jr. Vlad Goldin had 20 pts and 11 rebounds.
Saint Mary’s wins at Utah, 72-63. Paulius Murauskas had 29 pts to lead all scorers and hit 6/10 from downtown
The BracketBound Top 40 Teams That Matter:
Tennessee
Auburn
Iowa State
Kentucky
Marquette
Duke
Alabama
Florida
Gonzaga
Purdue
Oregon
Oklahoma
Clemson
Michigan
Kansas
Texas A&M
Ole Miss
Wisconsin
San Diego State
UCLA
Michigan State
Houston
Mississippi State
Arizona State
Baylor
UCONN
Maryland
Dayton
Penn State
Illinois
Missouri
Drake
Memphis
St. John’s
Utah State
West Virginia
Creighton
Georgia
Pittsburgh
Saint Mary’s
Others: Cincinnati, North Carolina, Texas, Texas Tech, Ohio State, Arizona, VCU, Iowa, BYU, LSU, and UC Irvine (ANTEATERS!)
UPCOMING SLATE:
Tuesday, Dec 10
Miami @ Tennessee
Penn State @ Rutgers
Wisconsin @ Illinois
Michigan @ Arkansas
Thursday, Dec 12
Iowa State @ Iowa (The Iowa Corn Cy-Hawk Series!)
Friday, Dec 13
Indiana @ Nebraska
Saturday, Dec 14
Memphis @ Clemson
Texas A&M @ Purdue
Ohio State @ Auburn (Holiday Hoopsgiving)
Xavier @ Cincinnati
Wisconsin @ Butler
Seton Hall @ Rutgers
UCLA @ Arizona
NC State @ Kansas
Arizona State @ Florida
LSU @ SMU
Louisville @ Kentucky
Tennessee @ Illinois
McNeese @ Mississippi State
Grand Canyon @ Georgia
Marquette @ Dayton
Gonzaga vs. UCONN (MSG)
Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State
Creighton @ Alabama
Saint Mary’s @ Boise State
Sunday, Dec 15
Georgia Tech @ Northwestern
San Francisco @ Loyola Chicago
Alright, let’s do a quick breakdown of some of these games…
Tuesday: I like Tennessee to keep it rolling over poor Miami, Illinois should beat Wisconsin at home - I think they’re just more talented and better defensively, I think Penn State stays hot vs. Rutgers, and I’ll take Michigan over Arkansas…the hawgs just haven’t been impressive at all this season, and Dusty May’s team only seems to be improving.
Thursday: I think the Cy-Hawk game is going to be pretty fun, and it being sponsored by corn is the most hilariously Iowa thing ever. Every part of me thinks Iowa State should win, but that rivalry is underrated and it feels like the home team usually wins: give me the Hawkeyes.
Saturday: Might be one of the best days on the college basketball calendar. Give me Clemson and their awesome defense over Memphis, Purdue out-shooting A&M at home, Auburn out-muscles Ohio State down low, Cincinnati over Xavier in the Crosstown Shootout (it’s kind of a “Loser Leaves Town” game too but Xavier might just suck), I’ll take Wisconsin to get right against Butler, UCLA over Arizona because they play defense, Kansas gets right at home, Florida beats a frisky ASU team at home, Kentucky beats short-handed Louisville (although I’ll be rooting for Louisville to make it a game), I’ll take Illinois over Tennessee in the Orange Bowl because 1) home teams and 2) I don’t think many teams are going to be in the #1 spot for consecutive weeks this season, Marquette barely beats Dayton in a game I’m VERY excited about, Gonzaga beats UCONN to send Hurley into another spiral in a great offensive battle, and Bama takes care of Creighton without Isaacs…just deeper and more talented.
Alright, that’s it for this week my friends - we’ve got a relatively light slate coming up because I believe it’s probably Finals Week for our studious young student-athletes. Tuesday and Thursday have some fun action, then Saturday holds generous rewards for your patience. That’s going to be a beautiful, tremendous day of college basketball. I hope everyone catches up on pre-Holiday chores and last-minute gift shopping and all that during this relatively dull week so you can thoroughly enjoy your weekend. Thanks again for tuning in this week - I’ll talk to you early next week!
Humbly Yours,
BracketBound